'n Omvattende nasionale bestuursraamwerk vir kragstelselbelemmering deur aaneengeskakelde ontwrigting van kragontwikkeling in Suid–Afrika

Abstract

This desertation shows that a unique class of network disruption exists that can be regarded in isolation of other classes of network disturbances, namely cascade disruption of generation (COG). This class of disturbance is being defined in terms of the cascading effect that it exhibits in terms of the disruption of power generating units in an interconnected power system. Through a literature survey it is shown that a lack of formal acknowledgement exists in the recognition of this class of disturbance both locally and abroad, and that therefore there is a general absence of a policy framework to manage the threat that is associated with the cascade disruption of generation. The analysis of the records of such events in the Southern African power pool are analised, and the properties and characteristics of COG events are explored. The extent of the threat to the interconnected power system that is posed by COG, as a phenomenon, is quantified in the conte·xt of industry practice and weaknesses are identified. It is shown that the occurrence of this class of event is not entirely random, and that statistical methods can be used in the development of mitigation strategies. A management framework is developed with metrics for the monitoring, evaluation and trending of the phenomenon, and to evaluate the ongoing risk. Roles and responsibilities are sugested and a outline for the systematic investigation of such events is developed. In the conclusion, the possible benefits of the an COG managenent framework are discussed and scope for future work in this regard is suggested.